2024/12/03 by Céline Heuzé, Alexandra Jahn · 3 voices · 39 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Arctic #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics #Arctic geoengineering #Arctic ice pack #Atmospheric sciences #Climate change #Climate change and permafrost #Climatology #Cryospheric studies and observations #Drift ice #Environmental science #Forcing (mathematics) #Geology #Ice-albedo feedback #Oceanography #Physics #Sea ice #Spring (device)
paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-54508-3
published in Nature Communications 15(1), 10101 (Nature Portfolio)
openalex publication_date 2024/12/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06
Projections of a sea ice-free Arctic have so far focused on monthly-mean ice-free conditions. We here provide the first projections of when we could see the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, using daily output from multiple CMIP6 models. We find that there is a large range of the projected first ice-free day, from 3 years compared to a 2023-equivalent model state to no ice-free day before the end of the simulations in 2100, depending on the model and forcing scenario used. Using a storyline approach, we then focus on the nine simulations where the first ice-free day occurs within 3-6 years, i.e. potentially before 2030, to understand what could cause such an unlikely but high-impact transition to the first ice-free day. We find that these early ice-free days all occur during a rapid ice loss event and are associated with strong winter and spring warming.