2024/07/08 by Håvard Hegre, Hegre, Håvard, Paola Vesco +79 · 1 voice · 1 citation
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Health Professions · Medicine · Social Sciences · #Anomaly Detection Techniques and Applications #Applications (stat.AP) #Computation (stat.CO) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #I.6.3 #I.6.4 #I.6.5 #J.4 #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Occupational Health and Safety Research #Risk and Safety Analysis
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2407.11045
openalex publication_date 2024/07/08 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This draft article outlines a prediction challenge where the target is to forecast the number of fatalities in armed conflicts, in the form of the UCDP `best' estimates, aggregated to the VIEWS units of analysis. It presents the format of the contributions, the evaluation metric, and the procedures, and a brief summary of the contributions. The article serves a function analogous to a pre-analysis plan: a statement of the forecasting models made publicly available before the true future prediction window commences. More information on the challenge, and all data referred to in this document, can be found at https://viewsforecasting.org/research/prediction-challenge-2023.