Exploring the Evolution of Gravitational-wave Emitters with Efficient Emulation: Constraining the Origins of Binary Black Holes Using Normalizing Flows

2025/03/05 by Storm Colloms, C. P. L. Berry, Christopher P L Berry +8 · 1 voice · 17 citations
Physics and Astronomy · #Accretion (finance) #Astronomy #Astrophysics #Binary black hole #Binary number #Cosmology and Gravitation Theories #Emulation #Gamma-ray bursts and supernovae #Gravitation #Gravitational wave #Physics #Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research #Stars #Stellar evolution

paper · pdf · open access · doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ade546

published in The Astrophysical Journal 988(2), 189 (IOP Publishing)

openalex publication_date 2025/07/24 · openalex created_date 2025/07/25 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Abstract

Abstract Binary population synthesis simulations allow detailed modelling of gravitational-wave sources from a variety of formation channels. These population models can be compared to the observed catalogue of merging binaries to infer the uncertain astrophysical input parameters describing binary formation and evolution, as well as the relative rates between various formation pathways. However, it is computationally infeasible to run population synthesis simulations for all variations of uncertain input physics. We demonstrate the use of normalizing flows to emulate population synthesis results and interpolate between astrophysical input parameters. Using current gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes, we use our trained normalizing flows to infer branching ratios between multiple formation channels, and simultaneously infer common-envelope efficiency and natal spins across a continuous parameter range. Given our set of formation channel models, we infer the natal spin to be <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mn>0.0</mml:mn> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>4</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.01</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.04</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> , and the common-envelope efficiency to be &gt;3.7 at 90% credibility, with the majority of underlying mergers coming from the common-envelope channel. Our framework allows us to measure population synthesis inputs where we do not have simulations, and better constrain the astrophysics underlying current gravitational-wave populations.

Citations

• On Information and Sufficiency
• emcee: The MCMC Hammer
• Evidence for Hierarchical Black Hole Mergers in the Second LIGO–Virgo Gravitational Wave Catalog

Cited by

• Evidence for Three Subpopulations of Merging Binary Black Holes at Different Primary Masses
• Do both black holes spin in merging binaries? Evidence from GWTC-4 and astrophysical implications
• Can Big Black Holes Merge with the Smallest Black Holes?
• Trust the process: mapping data-driven reconstructions to informed models using stochastic processes
• Fast and accurate parameter estimation of high-redshift sources with the Einstein Telescope

Discussions

• Delighted to share work led by @chirpmass.bsky.social out today arxiv.org/abs/2503.03819 Gravitational waves probe how massive stars evolve. Comparing simulations to observations we can measure curre [bsky, 23 points, 1 comments]

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