2023/09/05 by Smit Marvaniya, J. Singh, Marvaniya, Smit +9
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Engineering · #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Data Stream Mining Techniques #Energy Load and Power Forecasting #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Stock Market Forecasting Methods
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2309.02248
openalex publication_date 2023/09/05 · openalex created_date 2023/09/09 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial to improve its resilience. Representing mid to long-term seasonal climate forecasts is challenging as seasonal climate predictions are uncertain, and encoding spatio-temporal relationship of climate forecasts with demand is complex. We propose a novel modeling framework that efficiently encodes seasonal climate predictions to provide robust and reliable time-series forecasting for supply chain functions. The encoding framework enables effective learning of latent representations -- be it uncertain seasonal climate prediction or other time-series data (e.g., buyer patterns) -- via a modular neural network architecture. Our extensive experiments indicate that learning such representations to model seasonal climate forecast results in an error reduction of approximately 13% to 17% across multiple real-world data sets compared to existing demand forecasting methods.