2009/10/27 by Alhaji Cherif, Cherif, Alhaji, Hirotoshi Yoshioka +5
Social Sciences · Mathematics · Medicine · #Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.0910.5272
The spread of radical ideologies is a key to fanaticism, recruitment and\nterrorist activities. Hence, preventing such activities requires predictive\nmodels capable of identifying areas and agents before occurrence of\ncatastrophic terrorist act. In this paper, we develop a model that captures a\nradicalization mechanism through several intermediate stages of individuals. We\npropose a radicalizatiom mechanism using individual-based approach constructed\nfrom epidemiological model of contagion. Our model builds on insights from\ncontagion models used in theoretical epidemiology and entails a mechanism for\ncontrolling the spread of radical ideologies on social spatial networks by\nidentifying suspicious individuals and monitoring them, and taking action when\nnecessary. We show how our model can combat the development of terrorist\nnetworks even with limited information on a target terrorist network.\n