Urban Revitalization and Seattle Crime, 1982−2000
2011/11/01 by Derek A. Kreager, Christopher J. Lyons, Zachary R Hays · 110 citations
Health Professions · Social Sciences · #Archaeology #Crime Patterns and Interventions #Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance #Criminology #Demographic economics #Demography #Downtown #Economic geography #Economic growth #Economics #Gentrification #Geography #Homelessness and Social Issues #Longitudinal data #Longitudinal study #Sociology
paper · open access · doi:10.1525/sp.2011.58.4.615
published in Social Problems 58(4), 615-639 (Oxford University Press)
openalex publication_date 2011/11/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between crime and processes of urban revitalization, or gentrification. Drawing on recent urban demography research, we hypothesize that gentrification progressed rapidly in many American cities over the last decade of the twentieth century, and that these changes had implications for area crime rates. Criminological theories hold competing hypotheses for the connections between gentrification and crime, and quantitative studies of this link remain infrequent and limited. Using two measures of gentrification and longitudinal tract-level demographic and crime data for the city of Seattle, we find that many of Seattle's downtown tracts underwent rapid revitalization during the 1990s, and that these areas (1) saw reductions in crime relative to similar tracts that did not gentrify, and (2) were areas with higher-than-average crime at the beginning of the decade. Moreover, using a within-tract longitudinal design, we find that yearly housing investments in the 1980s showed a modest positive association with crime change, while yearly investments in the 1990s showed the opposite pattern. Our findings suggest a curvilinear gentrification-crime relationship, whereby gentrification in its earlier stages is associated with small increases in crime, but gentrification in its more consolidated form is associated with modest crime declines. Implications of these results for criminological theory, urban development, and broader crime patterns are discussed.
Citations
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- Pioneers of Gentrification: Transformation in Global Neighborhoods in Urban America in the Late Twentieth Century. [europepmc]
- Cross-sectional association between ZIP code-level gentrification and homelessness among a large community-based sample of people who inject drugs in 19 US cities. [europepmc]
- "Clear action requires clear thinking": A systematic review of gentrification and health research in the United States. [europepmc]
- Gentrification, Neighborhood Change, and Population Health: a Systematic Review. [europepmc]
- Injured black men's perceptions of the recovery environment. [europepmc]
- Cumulative Neighborhood Risk and Subsequent Internalizing Behavior among Asian American Adolescents. [europepmc]
- Revisiting revitalization: exploring how structural determinants moderate pathways between neighborhood change and health. [europepmc]
- Urban health inequality in shifting environment: systematic review on the impact of gentrification on residents' health. [europepmc]
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- Place-Based Improvements for Public Safety: Private Investment, Public Code Enforcement, and Changes in Crime at Microplaces across Six U.S. Cities. [europepmc]
- Investment and crime on residential street segments: Assessing the moderating role of neighborhood characteristics. [europepmc]
- Perceived Transit-Induced Gentrification, Walkability, and Crime: An Examination of the Purple Line Light Rail Transit in Prince George's County, Maryland. [europepmc]
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