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Sampling-based Approximations with Quantitative Performance for the Probabilistic Reach-Avoid Problem over General Markov Processes

2014/09/01 by Haesaert, Sofie, Babuska, Robert, Abate, Alessandro
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Electrical engineering #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Systems and Control (eess.SY) #electronic engineering #information engineering

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1409.0553

Abstract

This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov (memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control input, which can be selected to affect the probabilistic dynamics. We address the computation of maximal reach-avoid specifications, together with the synthesis of the corresponding optimal controllers. The reach-avoid specification deals with assessing the likelihood that any finite-horizon trajectory of the model enters a given goal set, while avoiding a given set of undesired states. This article newly provides an approximate computational scheme for the reach-avoid specification based on the Fitted Value Iteration algorithm, which hinges on random sample extractions, and gives a-priori computable formal probabilistic bounds on the error made by the approximation algorithm: as such, the output of the numerical scheme is quantitatively assessed and thus meaningful for safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we provide tighter probabilistic error bounds that are sample-based. The overall computational scheme is put in relationship with alternative approximation algorithms in the literature, and finally its performance is practically assessed over a benchmark case study.

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