Bayesian Analysis of Radiocarbon Dates

2009/01/01 by Christopher Bronk Ramsey · 205 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Computer Science · #Archaeology and ancient environmental studies #Image Processing and 3D Reconstruction

paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s0033822200033865

Abstract

If radiocarbon measurements are to be used at all for chronological purposes, we have to use statistical methods for calibration. The most widely used method of calibration can be seen as a simple application of Bayesian statistics, which uses both the information from the new measurement and information from the 14 C calibration curve. In most dating applications, however, we have larger numbers of 14 C measurements and we wish to relate those to events in the past. Bayesian statistics provides a coherent framework in which such analysis can be performed and is becoming a core element in many 14 C dating projects. This article gives an overview of the main model components used in chronological analysis, their mathematical formulation, and examples of how such analyses can be performed using the latest version of the OxCal software (v4). Many such models can be put together, in a modular fashion, from simple elements, with defined constraints and groupings. In other cases, the commonly used “uniform phase” models might not be appropriate, and ramped, exponential, or normal distributions of events might be more useful. When considering analyses of these kinds, it is useful to be able run simulations on synthetic data. Methods for performing such tests are discussed here along with other methods of diagnosing possible problems with statistical models of this kind.

Citations

• ‘Wiggle Matching’ Radiocarbon Dates
• Extended 14C Data Base and Revised CALIB 3.0 14C Age Calibration Program
• Discussion Reporting of 14C Data

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