2014/08/14 by William T. Ball, Ball, William T., D. Mortlock +5
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric Ozone and Climate #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP) #FOS: Physical sciences
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1408.3559
openalex publication_date 2014/08/14 · openalex created_date 2022/10/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and\nozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes\nin ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI\nchanges in a small number individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm,\noperating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozone\nvaries approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, we\npresent a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertainties\nfrom measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful,\nmathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties of\nthe data and additional external information to provide the best estimate of\nparameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurement\nuncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible to\ndistinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimates\nof ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion of\nother external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using wider\ndatasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and the\natmospheric response.\n