2020/04/21 by Lopez, Victoria, Milena Čukić, Čukić, Milena
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Neurons and Cognition (q-bio.NC) #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.09874
openalex publication_date 2020/04/21 · openalex created_date 2020/05/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment taken from Flow network and Markov chain frameworks to illustrate developments and trends based on publicly available data. Based on this Model, code in R was written and fed by stamped publicly available data from authorized governmental websites in Spain and in the Nederlands, to compare trends. Our results show that the 'peak' of infection is already behind us in both countries, but also demonstrate that there is a danger of rebound of a spread. It is obvious that measures imposed are giving the results, but we should be precarious of near future practices and developments since the majority of population will still be without immunity.