2021/10/04 by Hiromu Gion, Gion, Hiromu, Yasuhisa Saito +1
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Mathematics · Medicine · #34C23 #34D20 #34D45 #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Evolution and Genetic Dynamics #FOS: Biological sciences #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #msc:34C23 #msc:34D20 #msc:34D45 #q-bio.PE
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2110.01505
13 pages, 3 figures
arxiv created 2021/10/04 · openalex publication_date 2021/10/04 · arxiv updated 2021/10/05 · openalex created_date 2021/10/11 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
This paper presents a disease-severity-structured epidemic model with treatment necessary only to severe infective individuals to discuss the effect of the treatment capacity on the disease transmission. It is shown that a backward bifurcation occurs in the basic reproduction number R0, where a stable endemic equilibrium co-exists with a stable disease-free equilibrium when R0 <1, if the capacity is relatively small. This epidemiological implication is that, when there is not enough capacity for treatment, the requirement R0 <1 is not sufficient for effective disease control and disease outbreak can happen to a high endemic level even though R0 <1.