2021/06/09 by Giacomo Albi, Lorenzo Pareschi, Albi, Giacomo +3 · 2 citations
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Optimization and Control (math.OC) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2106.05122
openalex publication_date 2021/06/09 · openalex created_date 2022/07/25 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the\nepidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy\nbased on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe\neconomic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in\nrelation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an\nextremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual\nnumber of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection\nfatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a compartmental model\nwith a social structure and stochastic inputs, we derive models with multiple\nfeedback controls depending on the social activities that allow to assess the\nimpact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in the presence of\nuncertain data. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other\nlocations have been considered. Results from different scenarios concerning the\nfirst wave of the epidemic in some major countries, including Germany, France,\nItaly, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and\ndiscussed.\n