Consequences of prejudice against the null hypothesis.
1975/01/01 by Anthony G. Greenwald · 1,065 citations
Decision Sciences · Mathematics · Psychology · #Alternative hypothesis #Computer science #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Econometrics #Mathematics #Null (SQL) #Null hypothesis #Prejudice (legal term) #Psychology #Social psychology #Statistical hypothesis testing #Statistics
paper · doi:10.1037/h0076157
published in Psychological Bulletin 82(1), 1-20 (American Psychological Association)
openalex publication_date 1975/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Abstract
The consequences of prejudice against accepting the null hypothesis were examined through (a) a mathematical model intended to stimulate the research-publication process and (b) case studies of apparent erroneous rejec-tions of the null hypothesis in published psychological research. The input parameters for the model characterize investigators ' probabilities of selecting a problem for which the null hypothesis is true, of reporting, following up on, or abandoning research when data do or do not reject the null hypothesis, and they characterize editors ' probabilities of publishing manuscripts concluding in favor of or against the null hypothesis. With estimates of the input parameters based on a questionnaire survey of a sample of social psychologists, the model output indicates a dysfunctional research-publication system. Particularly, the model indicates that there may be relatively few publications on problems for which the null hypothesis is (at least to a reasonable approximation) true, and of these, a high proportion will erroneously reject the null hypothesis. The case studies provide additional support for this conclusion. Accordingly, it is
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