The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

2018/01/02 by Deniz D. Karaman Örsal, Deniz Dilan Karaman Örsal, Joshua R. Goldstein · 27 citations
Health Professions · Social Sciences · #Demographic economics #Demography #Economic growth #Economics #Family planning #Fertility #Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics #Global Health Care Issues #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #Labour economics #Population #Research methodology #Total fertility rate #Unemployment

paper · doi:10.1080/00324728.2017.1404624

published in Population Studies 72(1), 109-121 (Taylor & Francis)

openalex publication_date 2018/01/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/22

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.

Citations

• The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility
• Fertility Changes in Latin America in the Context of Economic Uncertainty

Cited by

• Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California
• Pattern of Changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Fars Province, Southern Iran (1988-2012). [europepmc]
• Beyond the Economic Gaze: Childbearing During and After Recessions in the Nordic Countries. [europepmc]
• Influence of Obesity and Unemployment on Fertility Rates: A Multinational Analysis of 30 Countries from 1976 to 2014. [europepmc]
• Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures. [europepmc]
• Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. [europepmc]
• Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty. [europepmc]
• Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts. [europepmc]
• Sustained and Universal Fertility Recuperation in Kazakhstan. [europepmc]
• Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California. [europepmc]
• Investigating Seasonal Agriculture, Contraceptive Use, and Pregnancy in Burkina Faso. [europepmc]

Related

• Determinants of Fertility Rate in Türkiye: Empirical Evidence Regarding Economic, Social, and Health Indicators
• The End of an Era: The Vanishing Negative Effect of Women's Employment on Fertility
• Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
• Socio-economic status and fertility decline: Insights from historical transitions in Europe and North America
• Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe