1994/07/01 by Barbara S. Okun · 44 citations
Decision Sciences · Mathematics · Psychology · Social Sciences · #Birth control #Cohort #Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences #Demography #Family planning #Fertility #Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management #Mathematics #Parity (physics) #Physics #Population #Psychology #Research methodology #Sociology #Statistics #demographic modeling and climate adaptation
paper · doi:10.1080/0032472031000147766
published in Population Studies 48(2), 193-222 (Taylor & Francis)
openalex publication_date 1994/07/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29
In their attempts to distinguish empirically between the innovation/diffusion and adaptation views of fertility transition, researchers have pointed out that evidence of fertility control practised by a significant proportion of women in pre-transition populations would render claims that fertility fell as a result of innovative behaviour less convincing. This paper uses simulation techniques to evaluate the ability of two indirect measures of fertility control, Coale and Trussell's model (M & m) and Cohort Parity Analysis (CPA), to identify the presence or absence of fertility controllers, as well as to detect changes in the extent of control. We conclude that neither M & m nor CPA can be relied on to identify accurately a minority of controllers in a population of interest. These findings suggest the need for a reassessment of some of the evidence cited in the debate over alternative theories of fertility decline.