Interpretation issues with “genomic vulnerability” arise from conceptual issues in local adaptation and maladaptation

2024/02/08 by Katie E. Lotterhos · 1 voice · 9 citations
Environmental Science · Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Agricultural and Biological Sciences · #Species Distribution and Climate Change #Evolution and Genetic Dynamics #Animal Behavior and Reproduction

paper · pdf · doi:10.1093/evlett/qrae004

Abstract

(GOs) have become a popular tool to predict population responses to climate change from landscape genomic data. Populations with a high GO have been interpreted to have a high "genomic vulnerability" to climate change. GOs are often implicitly interpreted as a fitness offset, or a change in fitness of an individual or population in a new environment compared to a reference. However, there are several different types of fitness offset that can be calculated, and the appropriate choice depends on the management goals. This study uses hypothetical and empirical data to explore situations in which different types of fitness offsets may or may not be correlated with each other or with a GO. The examples reveal that even when GOs predict fitness offsets in a common garden experiment, this does not necessarily validate their ability to predict fitness offsets to environmental change. Conceptual examples are also used to show how a large GO can arise under a positive fitness offset, and thus cannot be interpreted as a population vulnerability. These issues can be resolved with robust validation experiments that can evaluate which fitness offsets are correlated with GOs.

Cited by

• Comparison of Conservation Strategies for California Channel Island Oak ( Quercus tomentella ) Using Climate Suitability Predicted From Genomic Data
• Global coral genomic vulnerability explains recent reef losses
• Genomic variation of European beech reveals signals of local adaptation despite high levels of phenotypic plasticity
• Genomic Exploration of Climate-driven Evolution and Evolutionary Convergence in Forest Pathogens
• Predicting fitness in future climates: insights from temporally replicated field experiments in Arabidopsis thaliana
• Genomic Basis and Climate Change Vulnerability of Migration Timing in Atlantic Salmon ( Salmo salar )
• Application of Genomic Offsets to Inform Freshwater Fisheries Management Under Climate Change
• Genomic forecasting for climate‐resilient fruit trees
• Genomic vulnerability to climate change of a poorly dispersing and threatened fish, the southern pygmy perch ( Nannoperca australis )

Discussions

• Is genomic data useful for predicting species vulnerability to climate change? doi.org/10.1093/evle... Now in @evolletters.bsky.social by Katie E Lotterhos. [bsky, 40 points, 1 comments]

Related

• Genetic offset and vulnerability modeling under climate change scenarios: common misinterpretations and violations of evolutionary principles
• The accuracy of predicting maladaptation to new environments with genomic data
• Genomic Offset Analyses: Mind Your Climate Variables
• The genetic architecture and spatiotemporal dynamics of adaptation across human‐modified landscapes
• Simulated climate change magnifies genetic vulnerabilities from mutation load and maladaptation