An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
2010/05/03 by Steven C. Sherwood, Matthew Huber · 3 voices · 1,224 citations
Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Adaptability #Adaptation (eye) #Atmospheric sciences #Biology #Climate Change and Health Impacts #Climate change #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Ecology #Environmental science #Geology #Global warming #Habitability #Heat stress #Limit (mathematics) #Materials science #Mathematics #Physics #Physiological and biochemical adaptations #Population #Range (aeronautics)
paper · doi:10.1073/pnas.0913352107
published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(21), 9552-9555 (National Academy of Sciences)
openalex publication_date 2010/05/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06
Abstract
Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature T(W), is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. T(W) never exceeds 31 degrees C. Any exceedence of 35 degrees C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 degrees C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11-12 degrees C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 degrees C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.
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Discussions
- Thermoception is a topic in psychophysics (or more broadly, in biophysics). We generally perceive heat flux rather than temperature directly, as animal thermoceptors signal in response to skin tempera [stackexchange, 41 points]
- As mentioned in Sherwood & Huber (doi.org/10.1073/pnas...), "Our limit applies to a person out of the sun, in gale-force winds, doused with water, wearing no clothing, and not working". Intuitively, [bsky, 1 points, 1 comments]
- The important point here is that wet-bulb temperature in excess of 35°C is incompatible with human life. Air that warm and water-saturated means humans can't dump excess heat through sweating. https:/ [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
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