Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI
2025/06/10 by Simone Daniotti, Johannes Wachs, Daniotti, Simone +5 · 11 voices · 13 citations
Computer Science · Social Sciences · Medicine · #Software Engineering Research #Ethics and Social Impacts of AI #Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2506.08945
Abstract
Generative coding tools promise big productivity gains, but uneven uptake could widen skill and income gaps. We train a neural classifier to spot AI-generated Python functions in over 30 million GitHub commits by 170,000 developers, tracking how fast -- and where -- these tools take hold. Today, AI writes an estimated 29% of Python functions in the US, a modest and shrinking lead over other countries. We estimate that quarterly output, measured in online code contributions, has increased by 3.6% because of this. Our evidence suggests that programmers using AI may also more readily expand into new domains of software development. However, experienced programmers capture nearly all of these productivity and exploration gains, widening rather than closing the skill gap.
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- How much code now comes from AI? With @simonedaniotti.bsky.social, @xfeng.bsky.social & Frank Neffke we estimate that by end-2024 30% of Python functions pushed by US devs on GitHub are AI-generated. [bsky, 26 points, 1 comments]
- arxiv.org/abs/2506.08945 [bsky, 9 points, 1 comments]
- Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI [hn, 3 points, 0 comments]
- Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI [hn, 3 points, 1 comments]
- Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI [hn, 3 points, 0 comments]
- “Our conservative model finds that going from 0→30 % AI share (US 2020-24) predicts 2.4 % increase in commits. Using task & wage data on occupations, this implies genAI creates $9-14 bill/year in US s [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- Whois using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI [hn, 2 points, 0 comments]
- Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI [hn, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI arxiv.org/abs/2506.08945 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI [hn, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Link to the paper: arxiv.org/abs/2506.089... [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
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