1990/09/01 by Patrick Maher · 17 citations
Arts and Humanities · Decision Sciences · Mathematics · #Artificial intelligence #Business decision mapping #Causal analysis #Causal decision theory #Causal model #Causal theory of reference #Computer science #Decision analysis #Decision theory #Decision tree #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Economics #Epistemology #Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics #Evidential decision theory #Evidential reasoning approach #Mathematical economics #Mathematics #Microeconomics #Optimal decision #Philosophy #Philosophy and History of Science #Statistics #Value (mathematics)
paper · doi:10.1086/289569
published in Philosophy of Science 57(3), 479-498 (Cambridge University Press)
openalex publication_date 1990/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25
A “symptomatic act” is an act that is evidence for a state that it has no tendency to cause. In this paper I show that when the evidential value of a symptomatic act might influence subsequent choices, causal decision theory may initially recommend against its own use for those subsequent choices. And if one knows that one will nevertheless use causal decision theory to make those subsequent choices, causal decision theory may favor the one-box solution in Newcomb's problem, and may recommend against making cost-free observations. But if one can control one's future choices, then causal decision theory never recommends against cost-free observation.