Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals

2024/05/27 by Lee, Jonghyeok, Xu, Chen, Xie, Yao · 4 citations
#FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Machine Learning (stat.ML) #Statistics Theory (math.ST)

paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2405.16828

Abstract

In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals (KOWCPI). Specifically, KOWCPI adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of KOWCPI on real and synthetic time-series data against state-of-the-art methods, where KOWCPI achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

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