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Risk Measures and Upper Probabilities: Coherence and Stratification

2022/06/07 by Christian Fröhlich, Fröhlich, Christian, Robert C. Williamson +1 · 1 citation
Computer Science · #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Mathematics #Machine Learning (cs.LG) #Statistics Theory (math.ST)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2206.03183

openalex publication_date 2022/06/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Machine learning typically presupposes classical probability theory which implies that aggregation is built upon expectation. There are now multiple reasons to motivate looking at richer alternatives to classical probability theory as a mathematical foundation for machine learning. We systematically examine a powerful and rich class of alternative aggregation functionals, known variously as spectral risk measures, Choquet integrals or Lorentz norms. We present a range of characterization results, and demonstrate what makes this spectral family so special. In doing so we arrive at a natural stratification of all coherent risk measures in terms of the upper probabilities that they induce by exploiting results from the theory of rearrangement invariant Banach spaces. We empirically demonstrate how this new approach to uncertainty helps tackling practical machine learning problems.

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