Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format

2013/01/18 by Christopher W. Landsea, James L. Franklin · 1,197 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atlantic hurricane #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Computer science #Database #Environmental science #Geography #Geology #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Meteorology #Oceanography #Pacific basin #Structural basin #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #Tropical cyclone

paper · pdf · doi:10.1175/mwr-d-12-00254.1

published in Monthly Weather Review 141(10), 3576-3592 (American Meteorological Society)

openalex publication_date 2013/01/18 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04

Abstract

Abstract “Best tracks” are National Hurricane Center (NHC) poststorm analyses of the intensity, central pressure, position, and size of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basin tropical and subtropical cyclones. This paper estimates the uncertainty (average error) for Atlantic basin best track parameters through a survey of the NHC Hurricane Specialists who maintain and update the Atlantic hurricane database. A comparison is then made with a survey conducted over a decade ago to qualitatively assess changes in the uncertainties. Finally, the implications of the uncertainty estimates for NHC analysis and forecast products as well as for the prediction goals of the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program are discussed.

Citations

• A Simplified Dynamical System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

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