2016/11/13 by Anthony D Stephens, Stephens, Anthony D, David Walwyn +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · Environmental Science · #93A30 #Climate Change and Environmental Impact #Energy Load and Power Forecasting #FOS: Physical sciences #Integrated Energy Systems Optimization #New Zealand Economic and Social Studies #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Sustainable Development and Policies #Wind Energy Research and Development
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1611.04174
openalex publication_date 2016/11/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The decision by the United Kingdom (UK) government in 2007 that the country\nshould build a 33GW wind fleet, capable of generating 25 percent of the UK\nelectricity requirement, was controversial. Proponents argued that it was the\nmost attractive means of lowering the UK greenhouse gas emissions, whereas\nopponents noted that it would result in an unnecessary and burdensome\nadditional expense to industry and households. Subsequently there have been\ncalls for the wind fleet target to be further increased to perhaps 50 percent\nof demand. Although the National Grid has had little difficulty in\naccommodating the current output of about 10 percent of the total demand on the\ngrid, this will not be the case for a substantially larger wind fleet. When the\nwind blows strongly, turbines shed wind which is surplus to demand, leading to\nsignificant reductions in generating efficiency. The purpose of the research\ndescribed in this paper has been to develop a method for investigating the\nlikely performance of future large wind fleets. The method relies on the use of\nmathematical models based on National Grid records for 2013 to 2015, each year\nbeing separately analysed. It was found that the incremental load factor of the\nwind fleet will be reduced to 63 percent of its current level should the wind\nfleet increase from its current size of 14GW to 35GW, assuming a base load of\n15GW\n