2026/06/26 by Ryosuke Omori, Koichi Ito, Laith J Abu-Raddad +1
#physics.soc-ph #q-bio.PE
Standard epidemiological models rely on physical mobility and policy indicators, which fail when physical movement decouples from actual transmission risk. To address this, we establish a unified theoretical framework governed by risk-mediated transmission dynamics. Rather than treating societal responses as independent phenomenological proxies, we embed the underlying risk-avoidance tendency directly into the transmission mechanism. This is parsimoniously formulated via the Weber-Fechner law as a logarithmically scaled response to disease incidence, alongside behavioral fatigue. Analyzing multi-regional COVID-19 data, our risk-mediated model significantly outperforms traditional frameworks. While mobility metrics merely track movement volume, our approach directly captures unobserved qualitative contact changes, such as mask-wearing. By integrating this intrinsic behavioral principle, our framework provides a robust, mobility-independent baseline for predicting future epidemic trajectories.