2013/03/28 by Bent Flyvbjerg, Flyvbjerg, Bent · 1 citation
Decision Sciences · #Construction Project Management and Performance
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1303.7400
This paper argues, first, that a major problem in the planning of large\ninfrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs and\nbenefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high\nrisks such misinformation generates. Second, it explores the causes of\nmisinformation and risk, mainly in the guise of optimism bias and strategic\nmisrepresentation. Finally, the paper presents a number of measures aimed at\nimproving planning and decision making for large infrastructure projects,\nincluding changed incentive structures and better planning methods. Thus the\npaper is organized as a simple triptych consisting in problems, causes, and\ncures.\n