2021/01/29 by Yang Ye, Ye, Yang, Qingpeng Zhang +11
Business, Management and Accounting · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Supply Chain Resilience and Risk Management
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2101.12444
openalex publication_date 2021/01/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a dramatic surge in demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) worldwide. Many countries have imposed export restrictions on PPE to ensure the sufficient domestic supply. The surging demand and export restrictions cause shortage contagions on the global PPE trade network. Here, we develop an integrated network model, which integrates a metapopulation model and a threshold model, to investigate the shortage contagion patterns. The metapopulation model captures disease contagion across countries. The threshold model captures the shortage contagion on the global PPE trade network. Results show that, the shortage contagion patterns are mainly decided by top exporters. Export restrictions exacerbate the shortages of PPE and cause the shortage contagion to transmit even faster than the disease contagion. Besides, export restrictions lead to ineffective and inefficient allocation of PPE around the world, which has no benefits for the world to fight against the pandemic.