2021/06/29 by Spencer A. Thomas, Thomas, Spencer A.
Mathematics · #Applications (stat.AP) #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2106.15381
openalex publication_date 2021/06/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to COVID-19 at a national and place of occurrence level. We observe similar trends in the UK where deaths due to COVID-19 first peak in Homes, followed by Hospitals and Care Homes 1-2 weeks later in the first and second waves. This is in line with the infectious period of the disease, indicating a possible transmission vehicle between the settings. Our results show that the first wave is characterised by fast growth and a slow reduction after the peak in deaths due to COVID-19. The second and third waves have the converse property, with slow growth and a rapid decrease from the peak. This difference may result from behavioural changes in the population (social distancing, masks, etc). Finally, we introduce a double logistic model to describe the dynamic proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in each setting. This analysis reveals that the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in Care Homes increases from the start of the pandemic and past the peak in total number of COVID-19 deaths in the first wave. After the catastrophic impact in the first wave, the proportion of COVID-19 deaths occurring in Care Homes gradually decreased from is maximum after the first wave indicating residence were better protected in the second and third waves compared to the first.