Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting on Varying Levels of Aggregation

2014/03/31 by Raffi Sevlian, Sevlian, Raffi, Ram Rajagopal +1 · 1 citation
Decision Sciences · Engineering · #Applications (stat.AP) #Electric Power System Optimization #Energy Load and Power Forecasting #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Forecasting Techniques and Applications #Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1404.0058

openalex publication_date 2014/03/31 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

We propose a simple empirical scaling law that describes load forecasting accuracy at different levels of aggregation. The model is justified based on a simple decomposition of individual consumption patterns. We show that for different forecasting methods and horizons, aggregating more customers improves the relative forecasting performance up to specific point. Beyond this point, no more improvement in relative performance can be obtained.

Citations

• Short-term load forecasting

Cited by

• Extending Load Forecasting from Zonal Aggregates to Individual Nodes for Transmission System Operators

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