2020/03/23 by Marco Picariello, Picariello, Marco, P. Aliani +1
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies #COVID-19 diagnosis using AI #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Medical Physics (physics.med-ph) #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2003.10518
openalex publication_date 2020/03/23 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The data analysis on deaths in the Lombardy Region and of both the provinces\nof Bergamo and Brescia shows a twofold aspect on the trend of the epidemic: -\nall the data show a bias linked to the event of March 10th (day for which the\nLombardy region data is partial) and the subsequent change in the way in which\npositive cases and deaths are calculated; - following the containment measures\nof the Prime Minister's Decree of March 11th, the spread of the epidemic,\nalthough still exponential in nature, has a reduced multiplication coefficient.\nOur analysis concludes that the situation is not yet compatible with a plateau\ntrend and allows us to predict the trend in the number of deaths in the\nLombardy region. We therefore conclude that the containment measures put in\nplace by the government on March 11th will allow a reduction in deaths from\naround 8000 to just over 6500 for March 27th.\n