2020/05/13 by Subhas Khajanchi, Khajanchi, Subhas, Kankan Sarkar +3
Mathematics · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.06286
openalex publication_date 2020/05/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Understanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for improved control and social distancing strategies. To that effect, we have employed the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, refined by contact tracing and hospitalization data from Indian provinces Kerala, Delhi, Maharashtra, and West Bengal, as well as from overall India. We have performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the most crucial input parameters, and we have calibrated the model to describe the data as best as possible. Short-term predictions reveal an increasing and worrying trend of COVID-19 cases for all four provinces and India as a whole, while long-term predictions also reveal the possibility of oscillatory dynamics. Our research thus leaves the option open that COVID-19 might become a seasonal occurrence. We also simulate and discuss the impact of media on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic.