2020/05/13 by Arthur Charpentier, Romuald Élie, Charpentier, Arthur +4 · 1 citation
Mathematics · Medicine · #34H05 #49N90 #92D30 #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Electrical engineering #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #Systems and Control (eess.SY) #electronic engineering #information engineering
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.06526
openalex publication_date 2020/05/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We consider here an extended SIR model, including several features of the\nrecent COVID-19 outbreak: in particular the infected and recovered individuals\ncan either be detected (+) or undetected (-) and we also integrate an intensive\ncare unit (ICU) capacity. Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis\nof the optimal policy for the control of the epidemic dynamics using both\nlockdown and detection intervention levers. With parametric specification based\non literature on COVID-19, we investigate the sensitivities of various\nquantities on the optimal strategies, taking into account the subtle trade-off\nbetween the sanitary and the socio-economic cost of the pandemic, together with\nthe limited capacity level of ICU. We identify the optimal lockdown policy as\nan intervention structured in 4 successive phases: First a quick and strong\nlockdown intervention to stop the exponential growth of the contagion; second a\nshort transition phase to reduce the prevalence of the virus; third a long\nperiod with full ICU capacity and stable virus prevalence; finally a return to\nnormal social interactions with disappearance of the virus. The optimal\nscenario hereby avoids the second wave of infection, provided the lockdown is\nreleased sufficiently slowly. We also provide optimal intervention measures\nwith increasing ICU capacity, as well as optimization over the effort on\ndetection of infectious and immune individuals. Whenever massive resources are\nintroduced to detect infected individuals, the pressure on social distancing\ncan be released, whereas the impact of detection of immune individuals reveals\nto be more moderate.\n