The Influence of Storm Size on Hurricane Surge

2008/02/07 by Jennifer L. Irish, Donald T. Resio, Jay J. Ratcliff +1 · 479 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Climatology #Environmental science #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Flood myth #Geography #Geology #Hurricane katrina #Landfall #Meteorology #Natural disaster #Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing #Storm #Storm surge #Surge #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #Tropical cyclone #Wind speed

paper · pdf · doi:10.1175/2008jpo3727.1

published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 38(9), 2003-2013 (American Meteorological Society)

openalex publication_date 2008/02/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Abstract

Abstract Over the last quarter-century, hurricane surge has been assumed to be primarily a function of maximum storm wind speed, as might be estimated from the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. However, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated that wind speed alone cannot reliably describe surge. Herein it is shown that storm size plays an important role in surge generation, particularly for very intense storms making landfall in mildly sloping regions. Prior to Hurricane Katrina, analysis of the historical hurricane record evidenced no clear correlation between surge and storm size, and consequently little attention was given to the role of size in surge generation. In contrast, it is found herein that, for a given intensity, surge varies by as much as 30% over a reasonable range of storm sizes. These findings demonstrate that storm size must be considered when estimating surge, particularly when predicting socioeconomic and flood risk.

Cited by

• Climatological benchmarking of AI-generated tropical cyclones
• The Proudman Resonance Modified: Forced Waves in Shallow Water -- the Suppression of Resonance by Nonlinearity
• Correlating Storm Surge Heights with Tropical Cyclone Winds at and before Landfall
• Simulating Hurricane Katrina in the Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1
• Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind
• Sensitivity of HAFS-B Tropical Cyclone Forecasts to Planetary Boundary Layer and Microphysics Parameterizations
• Operational Storm Surge Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The Case for Probabilistic Guidance and the Evaluation of Improved Storm Size Forecasts Used to Define the Wind Forcing
• Ranges of Peak Storm Tides Between Open‐Coast and Bay Locations
• Projecting U.S. coastal storm surge risks and impacts with deep learning
• A Rapid Forecasting and Mapping System of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding
• Fast Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction using Searching Optimization of a Numerical Scenario Database
• Storm surge [wikipedia]
• A new tropical cyclone surge index incorporating the effects of coastal geometry, bathymetry and storm information. [europepmc]
• A Review of Historical Changes of Tropical and Extra-Tropical Cyclones: A Comparative Analysis of the United States, Europe, and Asia. [europepmc]
• The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes. [europepmc]
• Catastrophic storms, forest disturbance, and the natural history of Swainson's warbler. [europepmc]

Related

• Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923
• Correlating Storm Surge Heights with Tropical Cyclone Winds at and before Landfall
• Surface Pressure a More Skillful Predictor of Normalized Hurricane Damage than Maximum Sustained Wind
• Operational Storm Surge Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The Case for Probabilistic Guidance and the Evaluation of Improved Storm Size Forecasts Used to Define the Wind Forcing
• Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2022