Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data
1995/11/01 by Keith Jaggers, Ted Robert Gurr · 1,331 citations
Social Sciences · #Autocracy #Democracy #Democratization #Economic system #Economics #International Development and Aid #International Relations and Foreign Policy #Law #Political Conflict and Governance #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Polity #Sociology #Third wave
paper · doi:10.1177/0022343395032004007
published in Journal of Peace Research 32(4), 469-482 (SAGE Publishing)
openalex publication_date 1995/11/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/15
Abstract
Abstract This article reports and analyzes an updated version of the widely-used Polity II dataset, consisting of annual indicators of institutional democracy and autocracy for 161 states spanning the years from 1946 through 1994. The validity of the Polity III indicators of regime type is supported by their strong correlations (.85 to .92) with seven conceptually and operationally different indicators of democracy developed by other researchers. Comparative analysis of global and regional trends in democracy shows the extent to which the Middle East and Africa lag behind other world regions in the transition to democracy. A series of challenges to the `third wave' of democratization are identified, with particular attention paid to the large numbers of institutionally unconsolidated, or `incoherent', polities that have recently emerged, mainly due to attempts by autocratic elites to contain domestic and international pressures to liberalize their regimes.
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