2025/08/11 by David Swanson, Swanson, David A., Jeff Tayman +1
Physics and Astronomy · Social Sciences · #Applications (stat.AP) #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies #Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #Space Science and Extraterrestrial Life
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2508.07568
openalex publication_date 2025/08/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Studies that predict species extinction have focused on a range of flora and fauna but in regard to Homo sapiens there are, with one notable exception, no predictive studies, only considerations of possible ways this may occur. The exception believes extinction of Homo sapiens will happen in 10,000 years. We agree that extinction will happen, but we disagree on the timing: The work we present here suggests that if the current decline in birth rates continues, humans could be extinct by 2394. If we consider the absence of working-age people and the accompanying collapse of services, the survivorship rates would most likely be lower. Given this, it is plausible that extinction could occur around 2359. We also examined a scenario in which births ended in 2024, which revealed that Homo sapiens would become extinct in 2134. Given societal collapse, extinction under the zero births scenario could occur around 2089.