2025/10/02 by Antonio de Sá Gondim, Xi Huo, Gondim, Antonio +5 · 1 citation
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Malaria Research and Control #Mosquito-borne diseases and control #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2510.01590
openalex publication_date 2025/10/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
Chikungunya (CHIK) is a viral disease transmitted to humans through the bites of \it Aedes mosquitoes infected with the chikungunya virus (CHIKV). CHIKV has been imported annually to Florida in the last decade due to Miami's crucial location as a hub for international travel, particularly from Central and South America including Brazil, where CHIK is endemic. This work addresses to the geographic spread of CHIK, incorporating factors such as human movement, temperature dependency, as well as vertical transmission, and incubation periods, for different patches. Central to the model is the integration of a multi-patch framework, and in the numerical analysis it is considered human movement between endemic Brazilian states and Florida. We establish crucial correlations between the mosquito reproduction number Rm and the disease reproduction number R0 with the disease dynamics in a multi-patch environment, encompassing not only a numerical analysis but also from a theoretical perspective. Through numerical simulations, validated with real population and temperature data, it is possible to understand the disease dynamics under many different scenarios and make future projections, offering insights for potential effective control strategies, as well as addressing the timing for these strategies to be adopted.