Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism: The Effects of Backtest Overfitting on Out-of-Sample Performance

2014/04/10 by David H. Bailey, Jonathan M. Borwein, Marcos López de Prado +1 · 194 citations
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #Artificial intelligence #Artificial neural network #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Computer science #Econometrics #Economics #Financial Markets and Investment Strategies #Financial economics #Mathematical finance #Mathematics #Overfitting #Physics #Sample (material) #Stock Market Forecasting Methods

paper · pdf · doi:10.1090/noti1105

published in Notices of the American Mathematical Society 61(5), 458 (American Mathematical Society)

openalex publication_date 2014/04/10 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04

Abstract

Another thing I must point out is that you cannot prove a vague theory wrong.

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