2026/07/20 by Junjie Yin, Xinyu Feng, Jian Han +1
#eess.SY #cs.SY
Extreme weather events and the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) introduce growing uncertainty and resilience challenges for distribution systems. Unlike conventional deterministic contingencies, weather-driven disruptions exhibit probabilistic and spatial-temporal characteristics, where outage consequences depend on both geographic exposure and feeder topology. Existing approaches commonly focus on deterministic outage analysis, while topology-aware operational impact assessment under forecast uncertainty remains limited. This paper proposes an event-conditioned uncertainty modeling and topology-aware impact propagation framework for distribution systems under torrential rain events. The proposed framework integrates probabilistic event-track modeling, branch-level fault screening, downstream impact propagation analysis, and operational impact assessment within a unified workflow. Finally, case studies on the IEEE 33-bus distribution feeder demonstrate that the proposed framework can distinguish geographic exposure from topology-dependent operational impacts and support progressive early-warning impact assessment under uncertain scenarios. Furthermore, the impact zones are visualized on the CURENT Large-scale Testbed (LTB)-AGVis platform.