Temperature and Growth: A Panel Analysis of the United States

2018/12/03 by RICCARDO COLACITO, Riccardo Colacito, BRIDGET HOFFMANN +3 · 216 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Energy · Mathematics · #Aggregate (composite) #Agricultural economics #Annual growth % #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Climatology #Econometrics #Economic Growth and Productivity #Economics #Environmental science #Geology #Global Energy and Sustainability Research #Materials science #Mathematics #Panel data #Percentage point #Seasonal adjustment

paper · pdf · doi:10.1111/jmcb.12574

published in Journal of money credit and banking 51(2-3), 313-368 (Wiley)

openalex publication_date 2018/12/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Abstract We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one‐third over the next century.

Citations

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