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Phillips Correlation and Price‐Change Distributions under Declining Trend Inflation

2022/02/24 by Sohei Kaihatsu, Mitsuru Katagiri, Noriyuki Shiraki · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #Economic theories and models #Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets

paper · doi:10.1111/jmcb.12921

Abstract

Abstract The relationship between inflation dynamics and micro‐level pricing behavior is an underexplored research area. In this article, we first document that deflationary periods in Japan were associated with (i) variations in the distribution of price changes at the micro level, and (ii) a weakening in the Phillips correlation at the macro level. We construct a multisector general equilibrium model with sector‐specific menu costs, a feature that is supported by our estimation using sectoral data, and show that declining trend inflation and an increasing share of services in private consumption together can quantitatively explain the above two observations.

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