2024/12/04 by Schloer, Jakob, Matthew Newman, Newman, Matthew +6 · 1 citation
Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Atomic and Subatomic Physics Research #FOS: Computer and information sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Machine Learning (cs.LG)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2412.03743
openalex publication_date 2024/12/04 · openalex created_date 2024/12/07 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
While deep-learning models have demonstrated skillful El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts up to one year in advance, they are predominantly trained on climate model simulations that provide thousands of years of training data at the expense of introducing climate model biases. Simpler Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) trained on the much shorter observational record also make skillful ENSO predictions but do not capture predictable nonlinear processes. This motivates a hybrid approach, combining the LIMs modest data needs with a deep-learning non-Markovian correction of the LIM. For O(100 yr) datasets, our resulting Hybrid model is more skillful than the LIM while also exceeding the skill of a full deep-learning model. Additionally, while the most predictable ENSO events are still identified in advance by the LIM, they are better predicted by the Hybrid model, especially in the western tropical Pacific for leads beyond about 9 months, by capturing the subsequent asymmetric (warm versus cold phases) evolution of ENSO.