Change-point analysis for binomial autoregressive model with application to price stability counts

2024/04/22 by Danshu Sheng, Chang Liu, Sheng, Danshu +2
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #62M10 #Economic Growth and Productivity #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Firm Innovation and Growth #Methodology (stat.ME)

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2404.13825

openalex publication_date 2024/04/22 · openalex created_date 2024/04/25 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

The first-order binomial autoregressive (BAR(1)) model is the most frequently used tool to analyze the bounded count time series. The BAR(1) model is stationary and assumes process parameters to remain constant throughout the time period, which may be incompatible with the non-stationary real data, which indicates piecewise stationary characteristic. To better analyze the non-stationary bounded count time series, this article introduces the BAR(1) process with multiple change-points, which contains the BAR(1) model as a special case. Our primary goals are not only to detect the change-points, but also to give a solution to estimate the number and locations of the change-points. For this, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test and minimum description length (MDL) principle are employed to deal with the testing and estimation problems. The proposed approaches are also applied to analysis of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices of the European Union.

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