1993/08/01 by Karen J. Callaghan, Simo Virtanen · 41 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · Psychology · #Monetary Policy and Economic Impact #Political Conflict and Governance #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Presidency #Phenomenon #Popularity #Presidential system #Political science #Intervention (counseling) #Psychology #Political economy #Law #Economics #Politics #Epistemology
paper · doi:10.2307/2131999
published in The Journal of Politics 55(3), 756-764 (University of Chicago Press)
openalex publication_date 1993/08/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11
This research note reports an examination of presidential approval ratings during the Iran hostage crisis. Models of intervention and transfer function are estimated by way of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao analysis using Gallup opinion data from January 1976 to December 1979. Although it is fairly well accepted that the hostage crisis precipitated a "rally-round-the-flag" effect for President Carter, an examination of popularity dynamics reveals the unique influence of the crisis on Independents, a finding that suggests the need to revise the traditional view of the rally phenomenon.