1993/06/01 by Bradley Lian, John R. Oneal · 218 citations
Social Sciences · #Media Influence and Politics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Media Studies and Communication #Popularity #Use of force #Public opinion #Political science #Action (physics) #Spanish Civil War #Political economy #Law #Public administration #Economics #Politics
paper · doi:10.1177/0022002793037002003
published in Journal of Conflict Resolution 37(2), 277-300 (SAGE Publishing)
openalex publication_date 1993/06/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11
It is conventional wisdom that the public rallies 'round the president when military force is used abroad. Indeed, this belief has encouraged the view that presidents are apt to rattle the saber to divert attention from domestic problems. The rally effect is assessed by measuring the change in the president's popularity following all major uses of force by the United States from 1950 through 1984. Surprisingly, for these 102 cases, the mean change in the president's approval rating is 0%, even among the members of his party. Even well-publicized uses of force during a crisis boost the president's standing only 2%-3% on average. Regression analyses confirm that the rallying effect of a use of force is greater in a crisis and when the action is prominently reported by the media. In addition, rallies are greater when the president enjoys bipartisan support, his initial popularity is low, and the country is not at war or fatigued by war.