2003/01/01 by Jeffrey Herbst · 17 citations
Social Sciences · #Intelligence, Security, War Strategy #Military History and Strategy #Superpower #Political science #Foreign policy #Politics #International relations #Development economics #Political economy #Sociology #Law #Economics
paper · doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.afraf.a138812
published in African Affairs 102(406), 81-107 (Oxford University Press)
openalex publication_date 2003/01/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
The domestic political situation in South Africa was an issue of concern for US policymakers, and thus for the American intelligence community, from 1948 to 1994. This paper uses recently declassified intelligence assessments of South Africa to evaluate how successful American analysts were in predicting the evolution of apartheid in the uncertain mediumterm. I find that, contrary to much of the literature on US–South Africa relations specifically and American foreign policy more generally, the global superpower struggle did not prevent American intelligence officials from presenting their consumers — starting with the President — with a relatively accurate description of events in South Africa and with forecasts that were not noticeably different from other predictions, including those made by academics.