2022/06/26 by Petr Chýlek, Chris K. Folland, James D. Klett +4 · 225 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics #Climate variability and models #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Climatology #Surface air temperature #Environmental science #Forcing (mathematics) #Arctic #Climate change #Arctic oscillation #Climate model #The arctic #Atmospheric sciences #Geology #Oceanography
paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2022gl099371
published in Geophysical Research Letters 49(13) (American Geophysical Union)
openalex publication_date 2022/06/26 · openalex created_date 2022/06/27 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/01
Abstract While the annual mean Arctic Amplification (AA) index varied between two and three during the 1970–2000 period, it reached values exceeding four during the first two decades of the 21st century. The AA did not change in a continuous fashion but rather in two sharp increases around 1986 and 1999. During those steps the mean global surface air temperature trend remained almost constant, while the Arctic trend increased. Although the “best” CMIP6 models reproduce the increasing trend of the AA in 1980s they do not capture the sharply increasing trend of the AA after 1999 including its rapid step‐like increase. We propose that the first sharp AA increase around 1986 is due to external forcing, while the second step close to 1999 is due to internal climate variability, which models cannot reproduce in the observed time.