2026/08/04 by Miquel Noguer i Alonso
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #q-fin.MF
arxiv created 2026/08/04 · arxiv updated 2026/08/07
This paper develops a unified mathematical theory of implied, local, and learned volatility surfaces. Total variance wt(k,τ)=τσt2(k,τ) is an infinite-dimensional state constrained by positivity, calendar monotonicity, and the butterfly differential inequality. We establish the topology and tangent geometry of this arbitrage set and prove that a nondegenerate Gaussian shock at an active constraint exits with probability tending to one half. Exact invariance therefore requires tangency, reflection, or confinement to an arbitrage-free manifold. We separate this static invariance problem from dynamic no-arbitrage, derive the Musiela maturity-transport identity, and identify the additional fixed-contract martingale restriction. We formulate Hilbert-space dynamics, prove an exact modal reduction with closed-form truncation error, derive Karhunen--Loève factors, identify the portfolio derivative as a vega field, and obtain the covariance-optimal hedge α^∗=(H^∗ C H)-1H^∗ Cν. The local-volatility chart completes the geometry: Dupire local variance is the ratio a=∂τw/g[w] of the calendar and butterfly constraint functionals. Neural operators provide arbitrage-free universal approximation through simplex and cone heads. Normalizing-flow maps then add tractable conditional densities: we derive exact change-of-variables formulae for exponential local-variance flows and invertible stick-breaking price-simplex flows, while stating the quasi-invariance conditions required in genuine function space. Finally, fading-signature fields encode surface history and yield autonomous finite-dimensional controlled dynamics. The result is one framework for representation, dynamics, arbitrage, dimension reduction, likelihood-based learning, simulation, and hedging, together with a falsifiable empirical protocol.