1998/12/01 by Thomas K. Rudel · 246 citations
Environmental Science · Business, Management and Accounting · #Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management #Forest Management and Policy #Global trade, sustainability, and social impact #Reforestation #Deforestation (computer science) #Industrialisation #Natural resource economics #Afforestation #Scarcity #Biodiversity #Climate change #Forest cover #Economics #Economic growth #Geography #Forestry #Ecology
paper · doi:10.1111/j.1549-0831.1998.tb00691.x
published in Rural Sociology 63(4), 533-552 (Wiley)
openalex publication_date 1998/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/30
Abstract Environmental social scientists have recently begun to use the term 'forest transition' to describe how forest cover changes as economic development occurs in nations. The hypothesized transition occurs as follows. An initial surge in economic activity in impoverished societies spurs deforestation, but as economic activity continues to intensify and cities grow larger, a 'turnaround' occurs, and deforestation gives way to reforestation. This paper uses cross‐national data from five successive surveys of world forest resources to assess this empirical claim. A turnaround in forest cover trends does occur in a significant number of nations. The paper also evaluates two explanations for the turnaround, a wood scarcity hypothesis derived from microeconomic theory and an industrialization hypothesis linked to central place theory. It finds period specific support for the industrialization hypothesis. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of these findings for proposals to alleviate the biodiversity crisis through programs of reforestation.