An Introduction to Causal Inference

2010/02/26 by Judea Pearl · 2 citations
Computer Science · Mathematics · Social Sciences · #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Advanced Causal Inference Techniques #Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research #Counterfactual conditional #Counterfactual thinking #Causal inference #Causation #Causality (physics) #Causal model #Computer science #Causal structure #Econometrics #Mediation #Outcome (game theory) #Data science #Epistemology #Mathematics #Mathematical economics #Statistics #Sociology

paper · pdf · doi:10.2202/1557-4679.1203

openalex publication_date 2010/02/26 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Abstract

This paper summarizes recent advances in causal inference and underscores the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underlie all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, the conditional nature of all causal and counterfactual claims, and the methods that have been developed for the assessment of such claims. These advances are illustrated using a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in Pearl (2000a), which subsumes and unifies other approaches to causation, and provides a coherent mathematical foundation for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper surveys the development of mathematical tools for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: those about (1) the effects of potential interventions, (2) probabilities of counterfactuals, and (3) direct and indirect effects (also known as "mediation"). Finally, the paper defines the formal and conceptual relationships between the structural and potential-outcome frameworks and presents tools for a symbiotic analysis that uses the strong features of both. The tools are demonstrated in the analyses of mediation, causes of effects, and probabilities of causation.

Citations

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