Analytical solution of SEIR model describing the free spread of the COVID-19 pandemic

2020/08/24 by Nicola Piovella, N. Piovella
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · Physics and Astronomy · #2019-20 coronavirus outbreak #Applied mathematics #Biology #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) #Econometrics #Epidemic model #Infectious disease (medical specialty) #Mathematics #Medicine #Outbreak #Pandemic #Physics #Population #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) #Simple (philosophy) #Statistical physics #Virology #physics.soc-ph #q-bio.PE

paper · pdf · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110243

published as Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 140 (2020) 110243 · 21 pages, 5 figures

openalex publication_date 2020/08/24 · arxiv created 2020/12/26 · arxiv updated 2020/12/29 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05

Abstract

We analytically study the SEIR (Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed) epidemic model. The aim is to provide simple analytical expressions for the peak and asymptotic values and their characteristic times of the populations affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Citations

• Exact analytical solutions of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model and of the SIR model with equal death and birth rates
• A Note on the Derivation of Epidemic Final Sizes
• A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics
• Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions
• Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)