2026/05/01 by I. Bolliger, G. Cederberg, S. Dangendorf +16 · 1 voice
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Cryospheric studies and observations #Geophysics and Gravity Measurements #Flood Risk Assessment and Management
paper · doi:10.1029/2024ef005914
Abstract Recent advances in modeling 21st‐century sea‐level rise (SLR) and its associated societal outcomes have demonstrated that the spatial pattern of SLR combined with highly variable population density along global coastlines exert a strong control on its impacts. Here, we extend this research by examining differential costs arising from two sources of SLR that exhibit distinct spatial “fingerprints”—mass flux from the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland (GrIS) Ice Sheets. To do this, we employ the DSCIM‐Coastal data and modeling platform to quantify flood extents and population exposure to inundation from sea‐level changes associated with an ensemble of Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project projections between 2015 and 2100 CE. We also introduce the Social Cost of Ice Sheet Mass loss (SC‐ISM) metric and calculate this for both AIS and GrIS mass loss scenarios. Due to the distinct sea‐level fingerprints of the two ice sheets, we find that mass flux from the AIS floods a larger area and would inundate a greater (present‐day) population than an equivalent mass flux from the GrIS and yields a substantially higher SC‐ISM. Across a suite of future climate scenarios, the global SC‐ISM associated with AIS mass loss is ∼30% higher than that of GrIS, driven largely by differential SLR rates along North Atlantic coastlines. However, across both ice sheet mass loss scenarios as well as a uniform SLR scenario, the SC‐ISM exhibits disproportionate impacts. In other words, when normalized by local Gross Domestic Product, low‐income regions experience a greater economic burden than high‐income regions, regardless of SLR source.